Tariq Nelson

This article in the Washington Post states that Demographer William Frey states that the demographics in the United States are changing a little faster than once thought. In just 20 years.

Still, it is the accuracy of his predictions in the early 1990s about age and race that have made him a go-to guy for the media. Frey’s “map of America” turned into reality in the 2000 Census. His research about the shifting population of the United States, documented in more than 100 publications and several books, has made headlines in the Economist, the New Yorker, Forbes and numerous newspapers.

Frey, 59, has a remarkably detailed knowledge of where people live, who their friends are, how they are likely to vote and what they desire from life.

[...]

Looking to 2026, Frey imagines a country that is even more diverse — where many more people are bilingual and more road signs and products are labeled in English and Spanish. He imagines a country split by age, with older and younger states driven by different political interests.

He hints at what others have referred to as the “Balkanization” of America:

“I like to tweak conventional wisdom,” Frey says from his office, where reports and political magazines are sprawled across his desk. “People think of America as a melting pot, but that is a generalization. Some areas are, and others are not too different than they were 20 years ago.” In fact, Frey has pinpointed three Americas — the multicultural “melting pot” states, the predominantly white heartlands and the “New Sunbelt” — that are pulling in young suburbanites.

I was listening to the radio once and he joked that America is basically becoming divided between “happening” cities (New York, Atlanta, Denver, Houston, Dallas etc) and “not happening” cities (Milwaukee, Pittsburgh etc). However, one thing that cannot be discounted is the growing wealth gap that is a result of it being too expensive to live in the “happening” multicultural melting pot cities. In other words, these cities may be “happening” for people with money, but “not happening” for people without it and the middle class will leave, only leaving, for the most part, the rich and the poor.

What will change going forward? In 10 years, minorities are expected to make up nearly 40 percent of the U.S. population, Frey says. Ten years after that, they will have a plethora of high-profile positions as members of Congress, judges and business leaders, he predicts.

[...]

Frey has already written about the emerging New Sunbelt, which includes states such as Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Washington and Idaho. There, younger families that are no longer able to afford suburbia in New Jersey or California will move in.

In 20 years, they will be long settled and pushing their “fiscally conservative but socially liberal” political interests to the fore.

And then of course…race:

Talk of race will have changed dramatically, Frey says. By 2026, “federally discussed racial categories,” as they are used today, will be far less meaningful, he predicts. In Los Angeles, 25 percent of the population will be mixed race, with 20 percent in New York. One in six babies born that year will most likely not fall into a single category, he says, citing a rising number of relationships between Hispanics and Asians and other races.

Put into perspective, my sons, Insha Allah, will be 26 and 23 at that time… It is my prayer that I will have prepared them to be good Muslim men that are contributing to improve their society.

Full Article: Demographer’s Art of Prediction often Imitates Life

Link: America’s Color Lines Fading

Link: Commentary: As the Face of America Changes, So Should Our Convoluted Notions About Race

*Update: But, then on the other hand people maybe attitudes aren’t changing as much as some people are seeking plastic surgery on their noses. The article says that some are seeking a “mestizo” look. Wonder if the changing demographics and the rising popularity of the “racially ambiguous” look have anything to do with this. But, then again:

The phenomenon is global. According to the International Society of Aesthestic Plastic Surgery, the number of cosmetic surgical procedures performed worldwide has increased 15% to 20% each year over the last five years. National types of beauty apparently no longer hold sway, with all continents lurching madly toward an improved, modified, Aryanized look—a westernized face with a narrower, more protruding chin; a higher-bridged, more slender nose; smaller, narrower, downward-facing nostrils; and wider eyes with double lids. (In China, the enormous upsurge in cosmetic surgery has taken place both in hospitals and in small back-alley shops called “beauty-science centers.” Not surprisingly, this boom has caused an uptick in lawsuits against cosmetic surgery practitioners, with an estimated 200,000 such filings in the last 10 years.)

Entire Article: To Keep or Not Keep Your Nose